Under a radiant sunset in Memphis in May, Sharon Wilson aimed a heat-sensing device at a flagship datacentre to reveal a environmental hazard that was invisible. Free from environmental safeguards, the natural gas generators fueling an enormous AI data farms were pumping invisible fumes into the Tennessee sky.
“I was completely stunned,” said Wilson, who calculates the facility was emitting more methane than a sizeable energy plant. “Just an unbelievable amount of pollution.”
Simultaneously, the AI developed there was dominating news feeds, promoting misinformation and making false claims. Critics have pointed to generated images of offensive characters as an case of what fossil gas was being used to produce. “How does this contribute positively?”
Others echo this sentiment in raising this issue. Scientists are watching the AI boom with unease as it harms the planet with carbon and the digital world with risks ranging from health misinformation to synthetic explicit media.
Certain researchers fear datacentres may hinder the move to a sustainable system, adding an unnecessary hurdle to the quixotic task of keeping the planet from heating beyond critical thresholds. Some are optimistic about the energy costs, arguing they seem minor not just to traditional heavy industries, but also to the technology’s power to drive progress.
The Soaring Energy Appetite
As an energy professor conducted analysis for an international energy agency, she spent little time worrying about the emissions impact of computers. Transport, agriculture and buildings were among the major issues consuming the carbon budget.
But in one European nation, the computational hunger has reached levels that are impossible to ignore. Datacentres use one-fifth of the country’s electricity and are expected to devour nearly one-third within a few years. The fast growth of these computing facilities has exceeded the electricity grid's capacity, leading to moratoriums on new grid connections.
“The path of enormous, exponential growth is what is so worrying,” said Daly. “It is uncertain whether this is a special example or a precursor of what’s to come. But it’s definitely a lesson to heed.”
Worldwide, datacentres consume just 1% of the world’s electricity but may soon consume a greater share. Their percentage of electricity demand in major economies is estimated to more than double by 2035. Some demand is being met through contracts to buy clean energy, while some tech firms have signed deals to use nuclear energy.
But for the near future, non-renewable sources are set to dominate supply. In some regions, datacentres are located in areas reliant on polluting power generation. In others, political support has framed them as justification for continuing with dirty energy. “The notion that the lower cost of renewables alone will drive decarbonisation – it’s not enough,” said Daly. “Because if there’s a significant new demand of energy demand that wants to grow, it will utilize these stranded fossil fuel assets.”
Weighing the Carbon Cost of a Query
Does using chatbots to draft emails harm the planet? Tech companies have been reluctant to provide transparent metrics on their AI energy footprints, but common estimates hover around a small amount of energy for a simple text query, increasing significantly for more complex tasks. One CEO recently stated a typical AI query uses as little energy as running a lightbulb for a couple of minutes.
These amounts are negligible compared to activities such as flying, eating meat, or driving a car. Still, sceptics worry about the massive volume of the technology – with hundreds of millions of weekly users – and the fervour with which companies have integrated it into every aspect of digital life. The rise of automated assistants is expected to add to the constant energy drain.
“My concern is is that we’re deploying AI in such a way that we lack a clear understanding of the energy use,” said a climate lead at an AI company. “The prevailing mindset is on the hypothesis that it’s not a problem – or that if it is a problem it will somehow be solved – instead of proactively addressing it.”
The Possible for Emission Reductions
What if AI could offset its energy debts by cutting greenhouse gases in other parts of the economy? That is the argument put forward in several reports, which argued existing AI applications could cut emissions by far more than datacentres produced. Researchers have modelled scenarios in which AI would help to integrate solar and wind, identify alternative proteins, improve energy storage tech and encourage consumers toward climate-friendly choices.
“AI can hasten the deployment of those clean technologies by basically accelerating their position along the curve of development and use,” said a policy fellow involved in the research.
The estimated emission cuts carry large uncertainties – greater efficiency can lead to more use, and secondary impacts may undercut the gains. But instances already exist. Some companies report AI has helped reduce energy for temperature control in datacentres by a significant percentage. Energy firms say AI has enhanced wind turbine maintenance and performance, increasing operational efficiency. Solar farm operators have reduced downtime by using AI to detect faults.
Because other sectors are so carbon-intensive, researchers say, AI would only need to cut their emissions by a tiny percentage to cover the carbon cost of its computing. “For energy generation we are already seeing the results,” said one researcher. “But other sectors are not there yet.”
The Other Side: Boosting Fossil Fuels
Clean tech advocates are not the only ones to have noticed AI’s significant impact. The fossil fuel industry is also a major adopter. Some former tech employees have expressed concern over their companies' work for oil and gas clients, arguing it enables more emissions than the tech sector produces itself. Partnerships have been announced with major oil companies, with the potential to expand production and streamline exploration.
Industry estimates suggest AI could boost available oil and gas reserves and cut project costs. Industry leaders have stated that AI is embedded “in everything” and has increased productivity, leading to more drilling activity. The oil and gas industry also argues AI can cut its emissions per barrel, for instance by analysing data to spot methane leaks. But critics say there is a difference between technological capabilities and corporate actions.
“This is being utilized as an justification to postpone meaningful steps,” said one campaigner. “Observing methane from space is not halting methane.”
Perhaps even more troubling than the expansion of fossil fuel supply is the effect on consumption. Generative AI has been shown to create very successful advertisements, and the ease of production slashes the cost of driving demand. The marketing industry is preparing for AI agents that could handle purchases on a customer’s behalf.
“The common discussion is really focused on this false comparison between the energy used to run the technology and the positive use cases,” said a campaigner. “But it is misleading to ignore the negative use cases.”
Calls for Oversight and Control
Some voices are calling to hit pause, at least until better rules are in place. International bodies and coalitions of environmental groups have demanded a stop on new datacentre development, citing damaging environmental impacts. Some national regulators have imposed conditions, requiring that a large majority of a datacentre’s power must eventually come from new renewable projects.
Different voices have called to push the sector to do good. A few countries have started to mention AI in climate legislation, obliging governments to promote digitalisation that aids decarbonisation. There have also been suggestions to tax AI to generate resources needed for climate action.
Some campaigners are pushing for upcoming regulations to classify certain high-emission applications of AI as high-risk. They also want investors to consider enabled emissions when evaluating companies.
In response to concerns, some AI companies have stated they give considerable thought to the responsible deployment of computing power, support sustainability goals, and believe AI will be instrumental in tackling climate change. Other tech firms argue the energy transition is complex and requires a pragmatic strategy, with technology playing an important role in helping industries decarbonize.
One researcher concluded that, rather than panic, people should pressure companies to make tools that are built for sustainability.
“Maybe I’m a little naive, but I still believe that AI can do good in terms of fighting the climate crisis – designing the next generation of batteries, detecting deforestation, predicting hurricanes,” she said. “There are so many good things for which we can be using it – and instead we’re generating online platforms filled with AI slop while datacentres are getting powered by diesel generators.”
